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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:33 pm    Post subject: Post-NAFTA after-effects ... Reply with quote

The trade deal is complete. The media aren't telling us the truth. I would think that our leadership took the negotiation from one where the two sides could have joined hands to solve the problem quickly and cleanly, to one where we had to accept a take-it-or-leave-it deal on which we lost on every point.

This article shows the government compensating the dairy cartel with control over the imports from New Zealand ... so the price-fixing will continue.

Canadian dairy processors quietly awarded benefits from new CPTPP imports

If you buy foreign butter next year, Canada's dairy processors may still benefit
Janyce McGregor ﹞ CBC News ﹞ Posted: Dec 05, 2018 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 8 hours ago

Canadian cheesemakers already face new competition from the European Union, and cheeses from New Zealand and Australia can join the market in 2019. But the federal government quietly awarded most of the new import licences for Pacific Rim dairy products to Canadian dairy processors last week, ensuring any profits help the domestic industry. (Suresh Doss)
While the dairy industry was warning about concessions forced upon Canada in the new North American free trade deal text last week, the federal government quietly awarded Canadian dairy processors almost exclusive rights to import nearly all of the dairy products set to arrive soon from countries like New Zealand under the new Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.

That means that in a few weeks, when Canadian consumers have the option to purchase more foreign dairy products, Canada's dairy industry could still get a cut of the profits 〞 at least temporarily 〞 as it imports and then markets foreign dairy alongside products made with Canadian milk.

"This is a support for the dairy farmers through a roundabout means," said Karl Littler, senior vice-president of public affairs for the Retail Council of Canada.

"(The government) will, of course, deny that until they're blue in the face."

The revised North American trade agreement 〞 dubbed the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) by Ottawa and signed by the leaders of all three countries last week 〞 is the third major trade agreement in a row to hand over a share of Canada's dairy market to foreign milk products.

Canadian dairy farmers estimate that about ten per cent of their market has now been conceded at the negotiating table.

Canada 'not surprised' Trump taking risky move in order to ratify new NAFTA
Jim Carr: Time to step out from U.S. shadow
Your grocery bill could rise 3.5% in 2019, study predicts
Cheese from the European Union began entering Canada last fall, under the terms of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).

After the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) takes effect on Dec. 30, specified quantities of cheese and other dairy products from 16 different categories will begin to enter Canada tariff-free from the 11 CPTPP member countries, including globally-competitive products like New Zealand's butter.

The federal government has struck working groups to come up with a strategy for the future of Canada's dairy industry 〞 which now appears set to shrink 〞 and to plan for appropriate compensation for affected farmers.(Emphasis added.)

A government official speaking to CBC News as Finance Minister Bill Morneau released his Fall Economic Statement last month pointed to dollar amounts earmarked for "non-announced measures" and said a not-yet-finalized sum of money will be available for compensation. [....]
เว็บ แทง บอล แถม เสื้อhttps://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cptpp-trq-dairy-wednesday-1.4931852

What new surprises will there be? When will the tariffs come off?

The gentle reader will note that this does little for the dairy farmers, but probably a lot for the managers of the cartel. Trudeau's government fixes every problem with payoffs. This is an example. I wonder if Andrew supports this? But why do I wonder?

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It seems that signing the USAMC -- the NAFTA replacement trade deal -- doesn't mean an end to this??? Where's Crystia, the feminist crusader?

Steel, aluminum tariffs impacting one-third of Canadian exporters: poll
By Armina Ligaya, The Canadian Press 〞 Dec 18 2018

OTTAWA 〞 More than one-third of Canadian exporters say they have been negatively impacted by steel and aluminum tariffs that are affecting Canada-U.S. trade, according to a survey by Export Development Canada.

The Ottawa-based Crown corporation said Tuesday that among companies claiming to having been hit by these tariffs, 19 per cent have in turn raised prices and 18 per cent have found alternate markets and suppliers.

And while the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, has eased uncertainty, the results of the federal agency's latest poll show that exporters' confidence has eroded amid broader global trade tensions such as those between the U.S. and China, said Peter Hall, chief economist at EDC.

Exporters' expectations have now "come back down to earth," said Hall.

"Now we're faced with arguably much more serious global protectionist measures... A battle between China and the United States where there are some very tangible tariffs in place that are global trade inhibitors," he said in an interview.

The federal agency's semi-annual survey showed that overall trade confidence slipped to 73.8 per cent, marking a drop from 76.5 per cent on the previous questionnaire six months earlier when exporters' spirits were buoyed by strong economic activity despite North American trade concerns.

In September, Canada, the U.S. and Mexico finally reached a deal to replace the North American Free Trade agreement, ending months of uncertainty. However, punitive U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs slapped on Canada and Mexico during the strained negotiations remain in place.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and China's trade war had been escalating until the two economic superpowers reached a truce earlier this month. But, the arrest of a top Chinese technology executive in Vancouver at the request of U.S. authorities may imperil that reprieve.

The federal agency, which supports export-oriented companies, conducted a telephone survey of 1,000 small-, medium- and large-sized Canadian exporters from Oct. 23 to Nov. 13, and found that the signing of the USMCA had a notable impact on their investment plans.

With a deal reached, roughly 41 per cent of companies surveyed now say they have increased or are considering increasing investment 〞 more than double the number of firms from six months prior when a continental trade agreement was still in limbo.

As well, the percentage of companies saying they were delaying plans due to trade deal negotiations has shrunk to 35 per cent, down from 57 per cent of those surveyed six months earlier.

However, 34 per cent of the exporters surveyed said they were negatively impacted by the steel and aluminum tariffs, more than EDC expected, said Hall.

EDC said foreign tariffs or trade barriers were cited by respondents as the top challenge facing Canadian exporters, at 14 per cent. That was followed by obtaining financing and finding skilled talent, both at 11 per cent.

Of the five components included as part of EDC's confidence measure, it was exporters' belief in world economic conditions that slipped the most.

One-third of the companies surveyed said increased protectionism was affecting their global strategy.

"It's not just something that's a fear, it's actually impacting their strategy... They're asking themselves, 'What is my next move?' And they're really unclear about that at the moment," Hall said.

Armina Ligaya, The Canadian Pres

Huge FAILURE! When will Canadians realize what has happened to them?
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Considering that NAFTA and whatever the new name the orange idiot decided are very similar your outrage cannot be explained.

Not to mention the deal has not been ratified one would have to be Kreskin to understand where you are coming from.

Oh...perhaps....Freeland, the one who has been lauded as handling the issue w aplomb ?

Very smart woman there. But of course your misogynistic tendencies dont allow you to praise a woman. Thats a shame.


The Trump administration's new trade deal with Canada and Mexico leaves much of the old North American Free Trade Agreement intact.
There are some key differences, however, particularly when it comes to the dairy and auto industries.
The updated agreement, the subject of more than a year of intense negotiations between the three countries, includes some high-profile compromises from both Washington and Ottawa.




The last link shows a geat chart that confirms some good , but mainly that all stayed relatively the same.

Funny how nobody agrees with you . No Economists, no business folks ....funny that huh?
I wonder what that means.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I see it, the one important thing that survived the negotiation, and which was a Canadian priority whether the Crystia Freeland knew it or not (doubtful), was the dispute settlement mechanism. One thing about Crystia -- she handles failure with about as much 'aplomb' as a four-foot bow-legged kitchen witch can be expected to muster!

The Liberals even had to eat their words, and give away part of the milk quota to Wisconsin. Now the new trade deal is signed, but the tariffs are still in place. One wonders ... WTF???

'TC blames the "orange idiot" ... He's in the Rosie O'Donnell camp of Trump-haters. The thought never occurs to him (apparently) that his own champion is even more bodaciously-challenged than Rosie.

Rosie shows us what happens to women when there's no men around to objectify them. Actually, Rosie's pretty hard to 'objectify' so maybe it more a case of being born this way ... (cue the band)

Trump hangs around with supermodels ... we send him a cross-dressing garden gnome. No wonder he thinks we aren't serious.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More feels ..... and not a lick of info presented.

Just thoughts, from a guy that has shown he hates women and backs pedo's

You are some piece of comedy dude !

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

Steel, aluminum tariffs impacting one-third of Canadian exporters: poll
By Armina Ligaya, The Canadian Press 〞 Dec 18 2018

OTTAWA 〞 More than one-third of Canadian exporters say they have been negatively impacted by steel and aluminum tariffs that are affecting Canada-U.S. trade, according to a survey by Export Development Canada.

Not surprised;
The fact that there is no end game regarding the tariffs even after the new agreement had been negotiated to conclusion has to be a concern for Canadian business.

I think many felt that this was simply a tactic to move forward the negotiations but to be in a position where there is no "if/than" regarding how and when tariffs would be removed must be lending some real fear to the fact that they are here to stay.

One of the key items the Canadian Negotiation team laid out as a priority was to try and get Canadian firms exempted from the "Buy America" requirements attached to numerous government contracts in the US.

This was something that Canada seemed close on a few years ago but without it addressed in the new trade agreement and the tariffs still in place on steel it seems like a very real step backwards in accessibility to the US market.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Toronto Centre wrote:
More feels ..... and not a lick of info presented.

Just thoughts, from a guy that has shown he hates women and backs pedo's

You are some piece of comedy dude !

You have the gift of making people laugh as well.

I think the image of the bow-legged kitchen witch standing up to the Orange scrub pad is one that tickles. Or, I guess to be more historically accurate, we could have the kitchen witch waiting in the outer office of Mr Lyesoap, a henchman of the Orange scrubber

You're also very perceptive about my attitude towards women. Listen, when it comes to misogyny, I was making young girls squeal before there was a name for it. I thought it was fun at the time. It was decades later when I realized that what I had thought of as fun was really a despicable oppression. the kind of thing that makes todays women the awful creatures they are.

Fortunately, more and more people like you are coming along to condemn these oppressive expressions of male power ...

Bye, bye Miss America pie.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Truck crossings at the Peace Bridge are down 2 percent this year, continuing a long-term decline. Officials say new tariffs imposed on steel imports are part of the reason for the latest drop.

Businesses take a hit as tariffs spur further decline in Peace Bridge traffic
By Robert J. McCarthy | Published 6:00 a.m. December 26, 2018

There may be no better person in all of North America who understands the effects of U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel than Tim Clutterbuck.

President of ASW Steel in Welland, Ont., Clutterbuck has watched his business plunge after the Trump administration imposed import duties on steel from Canada last summer to balance what it labels an unfair playing field.

※It has had a significant effect, since 90 percent of our sales are in the U.S.,§ Clutterbuck said a few days ago, estimating he will ship 3,000 fewer loads of steel to his company*s Pittsburgh plant this year, while Welland*s 125 employees are working reduced shifts.

But every week or so, the Ontario resident ventures south to the Fort Erie headquarters of the Peace Bridge Authority, where he serves as vice chairman and the Trudeau government*s representative. There, he has watched a slow and steady decline of commercial traffic across the span linking the U.S. and Canada 每 made only worse in recent months by the drastic reduction in shipments of Canadian steel.

※It*s been a pretty dramatic thing for me,§ he said. ※Because when I put on my Peace Bridge hat, we*re noticing a drop in traffic. We budget pretty conservatively, but we did not anticipate such a drop in commercial traffic.§

Though a $100 million project to rehabilitate the bridge is now two-thirds completed, Clutterbuck does not think construction has contributed to the decline because of the authority*s extensive mitigation measures. He still views it as the best traffic conduit between Toronto and the northeastern U.S.

Peace Bridge Authority General Manager Ron Rienas reports truck traffic down a significant 2 percent this year compared to 2017, while car crossings have remained the same. That 2 percent decline in truck traffic translates into almost $300,000 in lost revenue, he said. He added that truck crossings are also down 2 percent at the Lewiston-Queenston Bridge while cars are up 4 percent.

The new tariffs appear to have accentuated a downward spiral in commercial traffic since the heady days of the 1990s, when soaring traffic levels sparked serious discussion 每 and even artists* conceptions 每 of a new international span between Fort Erie and Buffalo. Now, statistics show truck traffic across the entire northern border at 35 percent less than in 2000. At the Peace Bridge, trucks are down 19 percent and cars 39 percent.

Rienas says the authority gauges comparisons against 2000, the last year before the terrorist attacks of 2001 and the ensuing travel restrictions. The continuing drop is a major reason why tolls were hiked last Jan. 1.

※If we had the same volume as always we would not have had to increase tolls,§ he said. ※The money has to come from somewhere.§

Rienas also noted that new ways of doing business are now reflected at places like the Peace Bridge. While Canada remains the top export market for the U.S., he says, it has dropped to third in imports to the U.S., behind China and Mexico. Imports from Mexico in 2016 represented 13 percent of all goods flowing into the U.S., Rienas said, up from 6 percent in 1990. Mexico now exports more to the U.S. than Canada does.

※This shift in global trade patterns has a direct impact on border crossings between Canada and the U.S.,§ Rienas said. ※Clearly, imports from China enter the U.S. at seaports, and imports from Mexico are nowhere near the Peace Bridge.§

Now it appears the tariff effects are being felt in Canada, on the Peace Bridge, and in the United States, too. John Young, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Welded Tube in Lackawanna, recalls high hopes about locating at the former Bethlehem Steel plant. Proximity to its Welland-based parent company loomed as a major plus. But he has furloughed 25 employees 每 20 percent of his hourly workforce. [....]

It's probably nothing to worry about As soon as Crystia has time, maybe she'll threaten to come to Washington unless they give in ... but it is just one more sign of how badly the Trudeau team was outplayed in the trade negotiations. A huge failure that everyone hopes will go away if we just ignore it. Magical thinking.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

International trade in 2019: getting worse before it gets better
Ratifying the new NAFTA, dealing with Brexit, de-escalating Chinese conflicts ... where to begin?
Janyce McGregor ﹞ CBC News ﹞ Posted: Jan 01, 2019 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 8 hours ago

No question, 2018 was a stunning and often frustrating year for everyone engaged in international trade.

Now, 2019 seems to be looking at all that conflict and disruption and saying, "Hold my eggnog."

CBC News asked Canadian and American researchers, lecturers, lawyers and business advocates what they expect the new year to bring. Here's some of what they told us.

NAFTA 2.0 ratification: Will they or won't they?
The trade agreement that's the most important for Canada's economy is still the one that brings the greatest uncertainty, said Meredith Lilly, the Simon Reisman chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.

"Watch the congressional calendar" and President Donald Trump's reaction to signs of foot-dragging on Congress's part, she said. "There is no promise this is going to get ratified."

Debra Steger, a former Canadian trade negotiator now at the University of Ottawa, is braced for "a rocky ride" in Congress, particularly now that the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats.

"2019 might be the more important year [for NAFTA] in that respect, if it all goes up in smoke," she said.

"The new NAFTA has a lot more hidden landmines than what people understand and believe," said trade lawyer Cyndee Todgham Cherniak. "There will be disputes well into the future." [....]

The Trump administration's steel and aluminum tariffs were supposed to be lifted once the new NAFTA was signed.

There are no signs of them going away soon.

"The U.S. doesn't care if Canada is or is not a security threat," Dade said; if the administration believes there aren't enough Americans making steel and aluminum, they'll say they have a security issue.

"There's been a huge misreading" of the situation by Canadians, Dade said, abetted by people imploring Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to "fix the tariffs."

"God help him, the only one who can restrain the president is the Senate, and they've shown no willingness to take the power back," he said.

I (personally) think this is one of the greatest failures of Canadian policy ever! Others look on it as a brilliant bit of negotiation, although I don't know why. But we are told we can rest assurred that Crystia is on the job, and she'll straighten out Washington as soon as she can bet her new t-shirt slogans figured out.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On foreign policy, Canada is back 每 up against a wall, that is
Lawrence Herman is a former Canadian diplomat who practices international trade law at Herman & Associates. He is also a Senior Fellow of the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.

In the years since the Second World War, Canadian foreign policy was built on three fundamental pillars: First, the maintenance of strong relations with the United States; second, faith in the United Nations-Bretton Woods system, the multilateral institutions that were built after the war; and third, agreements and alliances with other Western liberal democracies, including our NATO partners.

That structure has been severely shaken 每 not only by the America First policies of U.S. President Donald Trump*s administration, but also by the shifting dynamics of relationships with China, Europe and the Middle East.

Canada*s crucial relationship with the United States has been more and more strained as the year progressed, notwithstanding the three-way agreement in principle with the United States and Mexico to replace NAFTA. And the year ended with a major altercation with China after the United States requested that the Canadian government arrest Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, who is now facing extradition. And while those are the two most difficult foreign policy challenges Canada faces after a dreadful 2018 in terms of foreign affairs and trade, they*re hardly the only ones.

Russia*s annexation of Crimea and the Canadian response has resulted in the frostiest relationship between the two countries since the demise of the Soviet Union. Chrystia Freeland, Canada*s foreign minister, is denied entry to that country, a situation without precedent.

Then there are the difficulties with Saudi Arabia, precipitated by a tweet from Ms. Freeland demanding the Saudis immediately release two jailed dissidents. While Canada has good reason to condemn Saudi Arabia*s human rights abuses, the Saudis responded by ordering the expulsion of Canada*s ambassador and declaring him a persona non grata 每 the most extreme action in international diplomacy short of a complete rupture. And since Canada has no political relationship with Iran 每 Stephen Harper*s government broke off diplomatic ties with the renegade country in 2012 每 Canada has been frozen out of the two most influential nations in the Middle East, seriously weakening its entire regional policy.

Meanwhile, its political gulf with eastern European countries only continues to grow. In countries such as Hungary and Poland, the resurgence of right-wing populist governments has created differences that are inevitably reflected in tenser political relationships. And the lack of respect for democratic values in Turkey, given the increasingly autocratic nature of the Erdogan government, has also weakened Canada*s influence with the important regional player and NATO ally.

Meanwhile, the political turmoil inside three of Canada*s important liberal democratic allies 每 the United Kingdom, France and Germany 每 has led to foreign-policy complications of a different sort as these countries turn inward to deal with their own domestic problems, weakening the informal alliance that was so solid and promising when Premier Justin Trudeau took office in 2015.

These shifts in the international situation have left Canada struggling to find its way forward in a fractured world where old relationships, assumptions and precepts are weakened or no longer hold. And that*s all compounded by major changes on the multilateral front, including the United States' withdrawal from global leadership within the United Nations and from its Paris climate accord, as well as the Trump White House*s attacks on the World Trade Organization.

The result: Canada finds itself bereft of long-standing alliances and in many ways alone.

Looking ahead into 2019, things seem uncertain at best, and could even deteriorate further. As long as Mr. Trump is in office, the United States will continue to be an uncertain ally, especially on the trade front. Efforts to end the United States* national-security surcharges on Canadian steel and aluminum remain stalled. U.S. trade actions against Canadian softwood lumber and steel products continue, too.

With protectionism reigning in the White House, Mr. Trump has started to look for external scapegoats to shore up his political base ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Canada*s imbroglio with China won*t easily or quickly be resolved, as the long and complex extradition proceedings for Ms. Meng continue.

All these shifting dynamics mean that the premises that underlie Canada*s longstanding foreign and trade policy are no longer valid. And building a new strategic framework in a vastly altered and hostile world will be a major challenge for Canada as the storm clouds continue to gather in 2019.

The Globe&Mail gives its readers another pacifier. This article makes it seem like Justin's problems are because of 'events in France' or 'Donald Trump did it' ... but the article almost trips over its own feet in making that argument. A lot of this falls in the lap of one Crystia Freeland, who has made Canada personal non grata (de facto) in the US as well as Saudi Arabia. She has offended the Russians as well with her aggressive defense of her homeland, Ukraine ...

She has to be fired'. The Canadian Minster of Global Affairs (the new Trudeau era name for the olde Department of Foreign Affairs!!!) has to learn that the office is not a soapbox which she can use as she wishes to advertise her own ill-considered opinions. But it's too late for apologies.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Drops To 22 Year Low Signalling The End Of The Housing Boom
by Tyler Durden
Wed, 01/02/2019

Canada*s mortgage credit growth continued to decelerate in Q3 2018. Per a recent report from RBC, mortgage credit growth decelerated to 3.2%, the weakest pace of growth in 22 years.

The result of banks reigning in loan growth is significant for a number of reasons. Over 90% of new money is created through banks issuing new loans, with a large portion of that growth derived through new mortgage loans. Essentially banks are shrinking the growth of new money supply, which is also called M1 and is considered the most liquid portion of the money supply because it contains currency and assets that can be quickly converted to cash.

As credit growth begins to contract it is effectively reducing aggregate demand, not only for housing but also has a subsequent knock-on effect, slowing new spending and wage growth. This ultimately impacts debt servicing, as wage growth is needed to offset the increasing rise of interest payments. Per RBC, Interest payments rose at their fastest rate (14.8% y/y) since 2007.

This is also important to keep in mind for rent prices. As rents are typically tied to the labour market. Rents rise when the housing boom is in full swing because credit growth is abundant, this then pushes home prices higher, which propels banks to issue more loans, creating a self fulling prophecy. The creation of this new credit drives wages higher, improving the quality of the borrowers who are witnessing strong wage growth. As unemployment falls an inflow of new migrants come looking to participate in the exciting economic prospects, many of whom become employed in the booming construction sector. These inflows push the vacancy rates even lower.

However, like all cycles, they must eventually end, and the boom ultimately sows the seeds of its own demise. The slowdown of credit stalls wage growth, asset prices come to a standstill, and construction begins to slow. This results in job loss, and inflows of migrant workers turns to outflows. Today, we have home sales plunging, prices declining, and wage growth (a lagging indicator) is decelerating, construction remains strong but has also begun to slow. While each cycle may differ ever so slightly, the outcome is almost always the same. I am hesitant to proclaim &This time is different*.

Just so you know ... our money is somebody else's debt. The money supply grows as a result of increasing debt being generated. When the money supply grows, it spurs more economic activity. This article says that the rate of increase in our money supply is the lowest its been in 22 years. That was the year of The Referndum, where Canada survived being split into two countries. It was a low point.

It implies an economic slowdowm.
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