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RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Just remember -- at the heart of Trudeau's administration are the biggest perps from the McGuinty mob that took over the government of Ontario ... so I was suspicious from the start. My impression was not favourable. They won't give up on their environmental goals no matter what they say. It's probably the same with the gender stuff.



well true there loaded with refugee's of the mcguinty and wynne governments , they sensed jobs and easy money in Ottawa so they headed east


Gerard Butts is far too much of an extreme partisan and agenda driven individual to give up at this point , he's in it till the bitter end
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:
( some posts online seem to indicate there has been a dramatic shift in the Ontario numbers , nanos previously showed a large liberal lead but according to graph the conservatives now lead , i'll see if I can find more on this poll )

¨¦ric Grenier??Verified account? @EricGrenierCBC ¡¤ 15m15 minutes ago

Well, that escalated quickly.

(Nanos's latest results out of Ontario. Update to the Poll Tracker coming later this morning!)

Lorrie Goldstein??Verified account? @sunlorrie ¡¤ 2h2 hours ago

New Nanos poll: Federal Conservatives 35%; Liberals 34%; NDP 14%; Greens 8%; People's Party of Canada 1%; BQ (Quebec only) 3%. เว็บ แทง บอล แถม เสื้อhttp://www.nanos.co/wp-content.....Slides.pdf ¡­ #cdnpoli


The Nanos shift is significant because they use a four week rolling average where the oldest sampling gets dropped but the weight of the last three weeks tends to hold down the current week

Having the sample shifted by one week is huge;

From a timing perspective the LPC is having a terrible week;
Pipelines, Carbon Tax, China, and Equalization are all hitting hard and at the same time.

It now becomes a matter of if anyone in opposition can capitalize.




whats also interesting is the liberal partisans are in a total state of denial , when the forum poll came out . they were all online saying it was nonsense and had to be wrong . then the nanos numbers come out and there suddenly rather silent


perhaps the GM announcement hit harder in Ontario than some realised or at least trudeau's response to it failed to woo the voters or make them feel secure about there jobs


perhaps people are starting to realise that trudeau doesn't care if people lose there jobs , this carbon tax has to go thru no matter what , its what the liberals have decided is going to happen unless there thrown out of power



I doubt the equalization factored into this poll as it didn't even hit the news until this week and wouldn't of been included
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

in my personal opinion I also think some factors would have to come together or play out a certain way for the conservatives to actually win , in no particular order



- the ndp would have to stabilise to the point there going to hold at least 30 seats and not lose a significant amount of % vote share from 2015 ( not sure were at this point yet as the ndp still seems to be bleeding mp's and leader has no seat )


or the Bloc Quebecois and Green party would need to rise to the point there picking up a fair bit of the past ndp voters to prevent them from going liberal and taking some of the former ndp seats instead



- there'd need to be significant evidence of a breakthrough in several areas of the country where they hold no seats ( east coast , Toronto , Winnipeg , Vancouver etc ) by evidence I'd be looking for star candidates or at very least candidates who stand a very good chance of winning , winnable open ridings , by election wins in unheld ridings ( not sure were seeing a lot of these things yet )




- evidence the People's Party is nothing more than the Libertarian party and only going to get very small amounts of votes and not actually split the vote . but at this point the people's party is such a wild card and we don't know who there candidates will be , Bernier might also be allowed in the debate



- likely also need some liberal and ndp incumbents to retire so more open ridings were available , especially in incumbent friendly areas like ( east coast , northern Ontario , northern territories , rural quebec ) . were seeing a lot of ndp mp's retire but so far very few liberals although some may announce in the new year there not running
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

whats also interesting is the liberal partisans are in a total state of denial , when the forum poll came out . they were all online saying it was nonsense and had to be wrong . then the nanos numbers come out and there suddenly rather silent


From my perspective the Nanos poll simply caused me to go back and look in more detail at the Forums poll, which really isn't as far fetched as the national number would lead you to believe.

Essentially Forums is saying that the LPC is dominating Atlantic Canada, is leading in Quebec, is behind in Ontario just outside the MoE, and is fairly far behind west of Ontario.

That really isn't outside the realm of possibility.
They are stating the LPC would win 140 seats with the CPC winning 180 seats, based on the above not exactly outside the realm of possibility.

If the CPC truly leads over the LPC west of Quebec then its viable they would form government.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the ipsos poll seems to have somewhat different numbers than others and liberal leads in the 905 area . although big cpc leads out west .

they also question if the ndp is really polling that bad and note 18 % of the vote would be a fairly high mark for them if they were to reach that )


December 20, 2018 7:00 am

It¡¯s advantage Liberals going into 2019, with Conservatives needing a Trudeau stumble: Ipsos poll

By Rahul Kalvapalle
National Online Journalist Global News


The 2019 federal election appears to be the Liberals¡® to lose, and it¡¯s likely going to take an ill-timed stumble from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to open the window for the Conservatives, who still lurk within striking distance.

That¡¯s the main takeaway of an Ipsos poll of 2,000 Canadians, conducted between Dec. 7 and Dec. 12, that also hinted that Trudeau is aided by Canadians¡¯ low degree of familiarity with his rivals, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.


Asked who they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow, 38 per cent of respondents chose the Liberals while 33 per cent went for the Conservatives.

The Liberals also came out on top as the party most Canadians said is best-equipped to deal with healthcare, climate change, poverty, unemployment and housing ¡ª five of the top eight issues that respondents said will determine how they vote in 2019.

Two of the other issues that are top of mind, immigration and the economy, are best left to the Conservatives, per respondents¡¯ consensus.

No party was able to claim a clear lead on taxes.


¡°When you take a look at the numbers right now, we have the Liberals with a five-point lead over the Conservatives and they¡¯re leading in all the places they need to lead,¡± said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.

¡°They¡¯re leading in the big-seat regions. They¡¯re leading in Quebec by a fair amount, leading by six points in the province of Ontario, they¡¯re even leading in the 905 [the seat-heavy region surrounding Toronto].¡±

Indeed, 40 per cent of Quebecers said they¡¯d vote for the Liberals, compared to only 21 per cent who said they¡¯d vote Conservative.

Ontarians¡¯ approval of the Trudeau Liberals wasn¡¯t as strong, however, with 39 per cent saying they¡¯d vote red compared to 33 per cent who¡¯d vote blue.


Meanwhile, the federal NDP¡¯s support over the course of the year resembles an orange playground slide, dropping from 23 per cent in March to 21 per cent in July down to 18 per cent in the latest polling.

But despite their tumbling approval, Bricker says Singh¡¯s figures still stack up well alongside most of his predecessors.

¡°As bad as that sounds ¡ª the fact that they¡¯re in steady decline ¡ª the truth is that 18 per cent, if they actually got that in the federal election, would be their second-best performance in history¡± ¡ª second only to the Jack Layton-led NDP¡¯s showing of 30 per cent in 2011.


If the NDP were to inch up from 18 per cent to 21 or 22 per cent, that would represent a major headache for the Liberals, Bricker said.

¡°The reason why that¡¯s a serious problem for the Liberal Party is that where [the New Democrats] tend to get their support is in Ontario, where they are the official opposition provincially, and in British Columbia, where they are the government right now.¡±

Sure enough, Ontario and B.C. were the provinces that expressed the highest support for the federal NDP, with 22 per cent and 18 per cent approval respectively

¡°If [the NDP] could move their level up a little bit, what happens is that progressive vote that needs to unite behind Justin Trudeau has two choices,¡± Bricker said.

¡°And if they have two choices and the Conservatives basically still ¡ª in spite of Maxime Bernier, in our polling at least ¡ª will only have one [choice], a united Conservative Party beats a divided progressive Liberal Party.¡±


In fact, the Scheer Conservatives are on course to collect 21 per cent of the vote from Bernier¡¯s home province of Quebec, which Bricker points out is more than what they picked up in the last federal election.

He also poured cold water on the view, held by some commentators outside Quebec, that there¡¯s an army of progressive voters in Quebec waiting to switch to the Liberal Party.

¡°If they were going to do that, they would have done it in 2015,¡± Bricker said.


What is easy to understand, however, is that Alberta belongs to the Conservatives, with 61 per cent of Albertans backing the Tories compared to only 19 per cent for the Grits.

The Conservatives also enjoy a sizable lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

¡°What we¡¯re getting back into under the Liberals is a situation that looks more like the 1980s and 1990s where western Canada ¡ª the prairie provinces plus Alberta ¡ª are really defining themselves against the national government,¡± said Bricker.



Alberta¡¯s quarrels with the federal government over aid for its oil and gas industry, coupled with the fact that Albertans will go to the provincial polls in May 2019, mean that Alberta-Ottawa tensions are set to be projected even more strongly over the next six months, Bricker added.

¡°You¡¯re going to see momentum around these questions as both the [Alberta] NDP and the United Conservative Party are really going to pivot against the federal government in Ottawa.

¡°That regional tension that we used to experience a lot more back in the ¡¯70s, ¡¯80s and ¡¯90s has re-emerged in Canadian politics. Right now, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are really, really difficult for the federal Liberal Party, in fact more difficult for them than Quebec was for Stephen Harper.¡±


The big picture, however, remains that while there are concerns over Trudeau¡¯s leadership, they don¡¯t appear to be strong enough at present to suggest that the incumbents won¡¯t retain power in 2019.

Just less than half of Canadians (49 per cent) said they believe the Trudeau government is working well for Canada, but the same proportion also said they believe the Liberals will be re-elected.

Assessments of the Trudeau government¡¯s performance ¡ª and its management of the economy specifically ¡ª have barely shifted from last year, and both remain around the 51 per cent mark where they stood last year.

Trudeau¡¯s overall approval rating hovers around 51 per cent, where it was this time last year.


Most strikingly, when respondents were asked to ascribe 16 traits to either Trudeau, Scheer, Singh or ¡°none of the above,¡± Trudeau came out on top above his Conservative and NDP rivals on all 16.

These include 14 positive traits such as ¡°Someone who is best to deal with President Donald Trump,¡± ¡°Someone who will best lead Canada on the world stage¡± and ¡°Someone you¡¯d have a beer or a coffee with¡± and two negative ones, namely ¡°Someone who wants to impose his values on others¡± and ¡°Someone who¡¯s willing to divide Canadians for political advantage.¡±

In sum, while the Liberals¡¯ advantage heading into election year isn¡¯t gigantic, it¡¯s wide enough that they likely only need to avoid some form of self-sabotage or a major blunder to secure victory in October 2019.

¡°What it looks like going into this stage of the game is that the Liberals are not in a position where they¡¯re going to beat themselves,¡± Bricker said. ¡°The Conservatives are going to have to beat them, and they¡¯ve got a lot of work to do.¡±

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted on exclusively for Global News A sample of 2,001 Canadians aged 18+ was sampled via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources from Dec. 7 to 12, 2018. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample reflects that of the Canadian population by region, age and gender according to Canadian census information. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case the results of the poll are considered accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would be had all Canadian adults been polled.


https://globalnews.ca/news/4778587/liberal-advantage-2019-election-ipsos-poll/
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like this discussion a lot.

The overwhelming feeling I get after looking at all the polls is that the public is restive. A lot of people will decide during the campaign, but they are ready for a change. But who?

Think of the Liberal coalition that won the last election. They more than doubled their previous vote. They got it by attracting new voters to their side, and by eating into the NDP support. The Conservative support stayed where it was in absolute numbers, but the turnout swept them out of office.

Can they do that again? It would be a dubious proposition because their last election performance was remarkable. It's not easy to do remarkable things twice in a row. Also, they now have the stink of incompetence upon them. Any lower than 38% in the election probably means a minority government.

The more I see, the more I think the NDP is going back to pre-Jack Layton levels. I don't know how Singh could be doing worse. He makes Scheer seem respectable, but neither one of them has laid a glove on Trudeau.

Scheer is doing marginally better, but he is waiting for the election to fall into his lap. He expects a parade of protest to form so he can get in front of it. I don't think it's enough. Could it be that the reasons the Liberals have to blunder for the Conservatives to win is because of their limp opposition to date? The folks don't see who the alternative to Trudeau is ...

It's coming time for Bernier to shake things up a bit. Trudeau has to be effectively challenged. He almost always looks bad. He gets by with platitudes. When challenged his responses tend to be weak and arrogant. He usually launches into an attack on Harper's government rather than answer the question.

In other words, he looks arrogant when called to account. It would be easy to knock some of his appeal away.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

well I agree with some of your points


its difficult to envision any scenario's where the ndp vote does not decrease based on 2011 and 2015 levels . even if things stabilise somewhat for them , its still going to be less than those elections


its also difficult to envision any scenario's where voter turnout stays as high as 2015 levels , there was a surge at the advance polls that we had never seen before previously and insanely high numbers of votes cast early . and overall voter turnout was very high as liberals got new voters to the polls


but has been no evidence that this trend is continuing , it would seem to be a 1 time event , in all the by elections since voter turnout dropped from 2015 levels and number of people using the advance polls returned to normal levels


I'm not exactly sure what this all means to the conservatives though , but if there vote stays high and there voters still show up in good numbers , a number of close races would start to look promising
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The link to the polling data from wiki is broken and I can't find the data on the IR site at the moment.

However the trend is still the same problem the Liberals had in the Forums and CR polls we discussed recently just with them winning the most seats now.

If the polling numbers hold out west their majority is wiped out;
While a 6% lead in Ontario is impressive is still not the 10% lead they had in 2015 and to put 6% into perspective the last 6% gap occurred in 2008 with the CPC secure 51 seats and the LPC securing 38 seats

While that is hardly an exact science with the LPC holding 80 seats in Ontario currently even a reduction of 10 seats essentially requires them to win around 25 seats in Quebec to offset that loss and the potential Western Canada loss.

The Tories being the top party on Immigration and Economy also isn't something to be understated as they seem to be the two issues being must discussed presently.

The path to a Liberal majority with a near wipe out in the West requires totally domination East of Manitoba and Ontario at present doesn't seem to want to play along with that.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a regional federal poll for Manitoba , shows the conservatives leading , although the liberals still hold on to some support in Winnipeg )



Conservatives mounting charge ahead of federal election: poll


Joyanne Pursaga



Published:

December 28, 2018


Updated:
December 28, 2018 3:46 PM CST


Filed Under:

Winnipeg SUN ?
News ?
Canada ?


Federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer addresses the Ontario PC Convention in Toronto on Saturday, November 17, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)


With the next federal election about 10 months away, a growing number of Manitoba voters appear set to vote Conservative.

As the federal vote slated for Oct. 21, 2019 draws closer, a new Probe Research poll found the official Opposition party has gained ground in Manitoba, with 42% of decided and leaning voters now planning to cast ballots for the Tories. Another 34% of voters prefer the Liberals, 16% would vote NDP, 5% would support the Green Party and 2% would select a candidate from the new People¡¯s Party of Canada.

About 1% of voters would support other parties, while 14% of those surveyed remained undecided.

The results show an 11-percentage-point drop in support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau¡¯s Liberal government since the 2015 election, when 45% of Manitobans cast ballots for his party¡¯s candidates.

But Probe Research principal Curtis Brown said the shift in support was expected.


¡°Certainly, we thought that, just based on historic voting patterns and what¡¯s happening nationally, that there would be an uptick in Conservative support and that¡¯s what the poll shows,¡± said Brown. ¡°The Liberals are still doing relatively well in Winnipeg but the Conservatives have definitely come back to some extent.¡±

While the Liberals still claim the most support among Winnipeg voters, with 43% to the Conservatives 33%, that level of support also declined from 53% in the 2015 vote.

Brown said it¡¯s not clear how the current level of support would translate into seat numbers, if a vote were held now. But he said it does appear the Conservatives will present a significant challenge in current Liberal ridings that traditionally elected Tory MLAs, such as Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley and North Kildonan-St. Paul.

¡°The key question is with the Conservative support and how it¡¯s distributed ¡­ How many of those seats are they going to win back?,¡± said Brown.

In the rest of Manitoba, Conservative support rose to 58%, up from 48% in the 2015 vote. Among those voters, Liberal support fell from 33% to just 19%.

¡°There certainly is that urban/rural difference that you see. And, certainly, the Conservatives do have a lot of that support outside the Perimeter (Highway),¡± said Brown.

However, he cautioned against making election predictions just yet.

¡°There is a lot of time to go between now and the next federal election,¡± said Brown. ¡°People may start thinking about their choice a lot more seriously, the closer we get to an election.¡±

Probe¡¯s poll was conducted by telephone between Nov. 27 and Dec. 6, 2018, using a random sample of 1,105 Manitoba adults. It¡¯s expected to be accurate to within ¡À 2.9 percentage points, with 95% certainty.


https://winnipegsun.com/news/national/conservatives-mounting-charge-ahead-of-federal-election-poll
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

looking at the Winnipeg ridings , based on a 10 % liberal drop from 2015 numbers


Charleswood St James Headingley - 2015 - 52 % > 42 % / cpc got 39 % 2015


Elmwood Transcona - 2015 - 29 % > 19 % / ndp and cpc got 34 %


Kilodnan St Paul - 2015 - 42 % > 32 % / cpc got 39 % in 2015


Saint Boniface - Saint Vidal - 2015 - 58 % > 48 % / cpc got 28 % 2015


Winnipeg centre - 2015 - 54 % > 44 % / ndp got 28 % and cpc 12 % in 2015


Winnipeg North - 2015 - 68 % > 58 % / cpc got 15 % and ndp 13 % in 2015


Winnipeg South 2015 --- 58 % > 48 % / cpc got 34 % in 2015


Wiinipeg South Centre 2015 - 59 % > 49 % / cpc got 28 % in 2015



so based on those numbers , Kilodnan St Paul , Elmwood Transcona and Charleswood St James would be the most likely to swing to the conservatives


although the conservatives have won other Winnipeg ridings in the past and might be able to do better than 2015 numbers in some of the others where the liberals would still be leading even with a 10 % drop
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The NDP support vanishing causes some issues in Manitoba;

However its not unrealistic to feel comfortable with the CPC winning at least five to six of the eight seats in Winnipeg based on the above numbers.
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