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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

looking thru the 3 by elections some more

it appears the outcome in Outremont is more or less a given , its shocking the ndp have managed to not lose a single seat to the liberals already this term considering there troubles ( either thru by elections or defections ) there long overdue for the inevitable

the race in Burnaby South is obviously highly competitive and the race everyone is watching for the next 40 or so days until we know who wins

as for York Simcoe it appears to be the sleeper of the 3 , it wasn't a battleground riding in 2015 and hasn't been one since 2004 election

but something about its location and the candidates tells me its going to be a competitive by election although cpc is likely to hold the riding in the end

the conservatives for some reason have not nominated a well known candidate for the riding unlikely the provincial pc's did . they held a nomination meeting and somehow a virtually unknown candidate ( Scot Davidson ) came out as the winner

I think they should of considered offering the riding to Lois Brown as a way to get her back into parliament and bring a well known female cpc mp into the house , she's from Newmarket and this riding starts just north of that city , it seem like a logical place for her to run and a safer seat than Newmarket Aurora where she plans to run again in 2019

the liberals and ndp have not found star candidates either , it seems that 2015 liberal candidate Shaun Tanaka will run again

the seat is also in a true battleground area if you look at the ridings to the north and south , a lot of intense races in 2015 and likely 2019 . liberal ridings like King Vaughan / Markham Stouffville are just south and cpc ridings like Barrie Springwater Oro Medonte ( won by less than 100 votes ) just north , also the riding of Leona Alleslev former liberal turned cpc mp is just south

with so many intense races , both parties would love to have some momentum going into the actual election in this region of the province

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a pollster reveals that Singh was unpopular among Chinese voters in his riding and that could make to hard for him to win the riding )

Turnout will be deciding factor in Burnaby South byelection: pollster

By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Jan 11, 2019 2:02pm

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh talks to reporters in Ottawa on May 9, 2018. iPolitics/Matthew Usherwood

Jagmeet Singh*s bid to represent Metro Vancouver in the House of Commons will ultimately come down to who shows up at the polls in next month*s vote, says pollster Quito Maggi.

The race in Burnaby South is expected to be the closest of the three byelections set for Feb. 25, with all major parties having a shot at taking the riding.

Maggi says the Liberals are the slight favourites at the onset of the campaign, though Singh*s talent for getting out the vote makes it hard to count out the NDP leader.

However, Singh stands at a disadvantage because of his unpopularity with the riding*s sizable Chinese population, he said.

When his company, Mainstreet Research, last polled the riding in early November, the NDP was trailing in third, behind the Conservatives and first-place Liberals, Maggi said. The difference between first and third was just under 10 percentage points.

Considering the riding*s large Chinese population, Maggi said Mainstreet asked all polling questions in English, Cantonese and Mandarin. The 2016 census pegged the Chinese population of Burnaby South at 40 per cent.

But while Singh was leading, or in a close three-way race, with English respondents, he was a ※distant third§ among those who responded in Cantonese and Mandarin, said Maggi, Mainstreet*s president and CEO.

※It*s going to come down to turnout among the Chinese population,§ he said, noting the Conservatives were in first place among Cantonese and Mandarin respondents.

Singh is running in the riding against corporate lawyer Jay Shin of the Conservative Party, small business owner Karen Wang from the Liberal Party (who ran for the provincial Grits in the 2017 B.C. election), and evangelist TV personality Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson of the People*s Party of Canada.

The Green Party is not fielding a candidate as a ※leader*s courtesy§ to Singh, according to Leader Elizabeth May.

In nominating a Chinese candidate, the Liberals will make ※things tough§ for Singh, Maggi said, though turnout, and the composition of those who show up, will determine who wins. Byelections, he said, generally draw about 50 per cent of voters who showed up for the general election.

Maggi said the race will hinge on what team has the best ※ground game§ and organization, which may favour Singh. He described the NDP leader as a ※machine§ at getting out the vote, pointing to his come-from-behind victory in the 2014 Ontario provincial election. In that race, Maggi said Mainstreet polls had Singh losing his Brampton riding by five points, but he wound up winning by seven.

He also said the Tories stand a good chance of winning the riding because of their popularity with Chinese voters, which polling shows largely and strongly oppose cannabis legalization.

But while Burnaby South is expected to be close, Maggi said he believes the Liberals will easily win back the Montreal riding of Outremont in next month*s vote, after more than a decade of NDP representation.

Outremont is a small dunk for the Liberals,§ he said.

The riding was seen as a Liberal bastion for decades before Thomas Mulcair pulled it into the NDP fold in a 2007 byelection. Mulcair won re-election three times before resigning this summer to accept a teaching position.

Mulcair, the NDP*s leader from 2012 to 2017, grabbed 44 per cent of the vote in the last election.

Rachel Bendayan is once again running for the Liberals in Outremont, after coming within 10 points of Mulcair in the 2015 race. After the election, she served as chief of staff to Bardish Chagger when the latter was minister of Small Business and Tourism.

Maggi said polling by Mainstreet three to four months ago suggested a ※runaway win§ for the Liberals.

Julia Sanchez will try to hold the seat for the NDP, while Jasmine Louras will represent the Tories. Green Party deputy leader Daniel Green will also run in the riding.

In the other race, Maggi said he believes the southern Ontario riding of York〞Simcoe will be a closer fight than many anticipate.

A Conservative stronghold in the periphery of the Greater Toronto Area, the riding had been held for the past 14 years by Harper-era House leader Peter Van Loan. He resigned last fall.

Van Loan got 50 per cent of the vote in 2015, beating Liberal Shaun Tanaka, who received 36 per cent, and the NDP*s Sylvia Gerl, who got 10 per cent.

In February*s byelection, Tanaka, a university geography professor, will run against business owner Scot Davidson of the Conservatives and workers*-rights advocate Jessa McLean of the NDP.

Maggi described Tanaka as someone who is ※very popular locally,§ and credited her with making the 2015 race closer than it had been in recent elections. He said the Liberals ※might be able to pull off§ the upset because of Tanaka*s popularity and the weakness of the federal NDP.

The NDP, Maggi said, hasn*t polled above 12 or 13 per cent in a Mainstreet survey in more than a year. He also noted that the party saw a 50 per cent drop in support in December*s byelection in Leeds〞Grenville〞Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, though cautioned that the NDP has historically never performed well in eastern Ontario.

But if this trend of falling NDP support continues, Maggi said expect York〞Simcoe to be the ※possible Liberal surprise§ of the night.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

January 13, 2019 7:49 pm Updated: January 14, 2019 1:42 am

Campaigns hit high gear in Burnaby South, where NDP leader seeks a seat

By Simon Little
Online Journalist Global News

With the race officially underway in the Burnaby South byelection, the major party candidates are wasting no time in kicking their campaigns into high gear.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who is hoping to finally win a seat in Parliament more than a year after winning his party*s top job, was joined by a former party icon as he opened his campaign office on Sunday.

※I was in Parliament when the Liberals killed social housing in the *90s,§ former MP Svend Robinson told the assembled party faithful, hammering on one of Singh*s core campaign themes.

※How many units of seniors* housing have been built in Burnaby by Liberals and Conservatives? None.§

Singh, for his part, sought to differentiate himself from the other major parties in a riding that has traditionally voted NDP.

※Will a Liberal backbencher actually do something to make sure there*s medication coverage for all? Will a Conservative member stand up in the House of Commons and push for a solution to housing?§ he asked supporters.

※Will either the Liberals or the Conservatives push for real action on climate change? They*re too busy continuing to subsidize fossil fuel companies and buying pipelines.§

But while Burnaby South has traditionally been painted bright orange, the race will be by no means a slam dunk for the NDP.

Former NDP MP Kennedy Stewart, who vacated the seat to become mayor of Vancouver, only won by about 500 votes in the 2015 election.

The Liberals, who came second in that riding, plan to mount a stiff challenge and have wasted no time in pointing out that Singh hails from Ontario and lacks roots in the riding.

※I landed in Burnaby South 20 years ago. I raised my family in Burnaby South,§ said Liberal candidate and daycare operator Karen Wang at her campaign office launch.

※I have two young children and I set up my business in Burnaby South.§

Wang, too, is promising an investment in housing and health care.

And she will have her own work cut out for her, campaigning in a riding where pipeline politics are always front and centre 〞 while running to sit in a Liberal government that spent $4.5 billion buying the Trans Mountain Pipeline.

※I know some people have this concern, and right now my opinion is when we grow the economy at the same time we protect our environment, it will be balanced,§ she told Global News.

※I*m with the party*s policy. At the same time, I respect people*s opinions in the community,§ she added.

Conservative candidate Jay Shin, a business lawyer and political neophyte, has been pounding the pavement and knocking on doors and says the people he*s hearing from want fiscal restraint.

※They feel like they*re taxed to death. The response I*m getting is the NDP*s socialist policy of high taxes and spending doesn*t work,§ he said.

※People talk about what we went through in the *90s when we had the NDP government here in the province; we became a have-not province.§

Shin says he recognizes that he*ll have an uphill battle winning in a riding that*s historically voted left of centre but that he*s ready for the challenge 〞 and optimistic about his challenges.

※Maybe I*m an underdog, but that*s fine,§ he said.

※But really, I think it*s time for a change. I sense that when I speak with people. We have a new mayor here because they felt that the NDP city council here wasn*t working for them.§

The federal Green Party has opted not to run a candidate, extending so-called ※leader*s courtesy§ to Singh.

Maxime Bernier*s new People*s Party of Canada has nominated former Christian broadcaster and anti-SOGI activist Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson.

Burnaby South goes to the polls on Feb. 25.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jagmeet Singh on Tory opponent: 'Maybe he should go back to law school'

Conservative candidate Jay Shin said Singh was 'keeping criminals out of jail' during his days as a criminal defence lawyer

Kelvin Gawley / Burnaby Now
January 13, 2019 10:27 AM

Jagmeet Singh, the NDP leader running in a Feb. 25 Burnaby South byelection, pictured in the riding.

Photograph By Kelvin Gawley

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh suggested his Burnaby South opponent, lawyer Jay Shin, had forgotten a basic principle of Canadian law after the Tory said Singh was ※keeping criminals out of jail§ in his days as a criminal defence lawyer.

Shin issued a press release accusing Singh of being soft on crime. The release came within hours of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing on Wednesday that there would be a byelection in Burnaby South and two other ridings on Feb. 25.

※While Jagmeet Singh has spent his pre-political career as a criminal defence lawyer keeping criminals out of jail, I have spent my legal career building Canadian businesses that create jobs and promote international trade,§ wrote Shin, a business lawyer who has facilitated foreign investment in B.C.

Singh said Shin*s comments demonstrated a ※short-sighted view of what our justice system is.§ He said defence lawyers play a vital role in criminal proceedings.

※That*s just the fundamentals of our justice system,§ Singh said. ※Maybe he (Shin) should go back to law school and double check what the basics of the criminal justice system are.§

Shin later told the NOW he wasn*t trying to discredit defence lawyers.

※They play an important role; everybody has a right to defence,§ Shin said. ※What I*m saying is he played that role: as a criminal lawyer, he defended criminals. That*s all I*m saying.§

Shin*s press release also said the NDP ※go easy on criminals and have actively endorsed illegal immigration into our country.§

Shin cited the NDP*s insistence on referring to border crossings at non-official entry points as ※irregular§ rather than ※illegal.§ He said the distinction between the two words is irrelevant but the NDP*s word choice amounts to ※promoting illegal immigration.§

Singh called the Conservatives* rhetoric on the issue ※inflammatory.§ He said some provinces are underfunded to deal with the influx of asylum seekers crossing into Canada from the U.S.

In August, the Canadian Press* Baloney Meter examined the issue of asylum seekers crossing the border. It found that roughly one-third of people making refugee claims in Canada do so after making a non-official crossings but rated Conservative leader Andrew Scheer*s description of the situation as a ※crisis§ as ※full of baloney.§

Shin*s press release also went after the NDP*s economic policies, saying ※they want to raise taxes and shut the economic engine that drives Canada forward.§

Singh said the opposite is true.

※We want to spur the economic engine,§ he said. ※We want to make investments that will actually make the economic engine more effective, more efficient.§

The NDP leader said his plan to implement a national pharmacare plan providing medication coverage for all Canadians would become a competitive advantage for businesses.

But Shin wasn*t convinced.

※Where does that money come from? It comes from taxes,§ Shin said. ※The NDP's socialist policies (don*t) work.§


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WARREN: What the upcoming byelections will mean for the general election

Jim Warren

January 12, 2019

January 12, 2019 6:00 PM EST

Filed Under:

Toronto SUN ?
Opinion ?
Columnists ?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced three byelections in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia this past week.

Normally, I would argue that byelections are not a good indicator of general election success. But the results in each of these three ridings will dramatically impact the 2019 federal election.

The three byelections being held are in the ridings of Burnaby South in B.C., Outremont in Quebec and York每Simcoe in Ontario. Voters go to the polls on Feb. 25.


NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is hoping the voters of Burnaby South want a potential prime minister to be their local representative.

Singh has had to sit on the sidelines on Parliament Hill since becoming the NDP leader as he did not have a seat in the House of Commons.

The NDP has floundered under his leadership in public opinion polling. It hasn*t been successful at fundraising and there are many rumours of dissent in the NDP caucus over Singh*s leadership.

He hopes a byelection victory will be the shot in the arm he needs to create some positive momentum in 2019.

Running for the Liberals against Singh is businesswoman Karen Wang. The Tories are running lawyer Jay Shin. The Green Party has decided not to run a candidate against Singh to respect the ※leader*s courtesy.§

Maxime Bernier*s People*s Party of Canada has decided to run controversial media personality Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson.

What if Jagmeet Singh loses this byelection? That*s the big question facing federal political strategists from all parties. Can he survive as party leader? Will he still run in the fall general election?

My sense is the Liberals are looking forward to facing the NDP led by Singh in the 2019 election. Liberals fortunes could be as much at stake as Singh*s personal future.


Outremont was held by former NDP leader Tom Mulcair. The NDP*s performance in this riding will be a good indicator of how Quebecers view Singh and therefore it is another big test of his leadership.

Mulcair actually took shots at Singh this week saying that if he lost in Burnaby South he should not lead the party in the general election.

Julia Sanchez is the NDP candidate, Jasmine Louras is the Conservative candidate, and Rachel Bendayan is the Liberal. And Daniel Green, the deputy leader of the Greens, is running for his party.

It will also be interesting to see how many votes Maxime Bernier*s party can pick up, although it has yet to select a candidate.


The riding will most likely remain Conservative. It is a Tory bastion held formerly by Peter Van Loan.

What I find most interesting about the Liberals calling a byelection in this riding is that they did so without having a candidate.

When you are the government, you completely control the timing of the byelection. Is the Liberal failure to have a candidate in place months before a reflection of its general election readiness?

Why not make it as difficult as possible for Andrew Scheer by running a strong and established Liberal candidate? Instead the Liberals* nomination meeting was held this weekend.

Scot Davidson will run for Scheer while Jessa McLean is the NDP candidate.

Byelections normally do not serve as an indicator of future performance or success.

Instead, this time these three byelections could provide critical pieces of puzzle for general election success in 2019 and who could be the next prime minister of Canada.

Jim Warren is former Liberal strategist who worked for Toronto Mayor Mel Lastman and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( elections Canada has also released the spending limits , which seem to be around $100,000 - $130,000 . if this were the US the parties would spend way more .

but in Canada they have to be more careful where they spend the money . especially in Burnaby South such an important race , they need to make sure the money is spent wisely )

Preliminary Election Expenses Limits Are Now Available Online

Limits Apply to Registered Political Parties, Candidates and Third Parties in the Federal By Elections in Burnaby South, Outremont and York每Simcoe

News Release

Gatineau, Monday, January 14, 2019

?The Chief Electoral Officer has released the preliminary election expenses limits for political parties and candidates and the election advertising expenses limits for third parties for the federal by-elections in the electoral districts of Burnaby South (British Columbia), Outremont (Quebec) and York每Simcoe (Ontario).

?View the preliminary election expenses limits for political parties with a candidate in Burnaby South, Outremont and York每Simcoe.

?View the preliminary election expenses limits for candidates in Burnaby South, Outremont and York每Simcoe.

?View the limits on election advertising expenses incurred by third parties in Burnaby South, Outremont and York每Simcoe.

?The final election expenses limits for parties and candidates will be available on Monday, February 18, 2019.
?Election expenses limits for political parties and for candidates, as well as the election advertising limit for third parties, are established in accordance with the Canada Elections Act.

Elections Canada is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament.

Elections Canada Media Relations

Subscribe to our news service at elections.ca.

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